By Eliane Portillo

After the first quarter the whole year is expected a lower level compared to the end of 2011 by the fundamental strength of the peso, as the external accounts, oil prices and international reserves, but neither expects a strong appreciation.

An analysis said: Until now most analysts, like us, believe that the weight will tend to appreciate over the years from its current level to the P $ 13.0/USD is our forecast for the end the year. This is based on external accounts without significant imbalances, high oil prices, high international reserves, moderate fiscal deficit and competitiveness of manufactured exports, among others.

They noted that since the end of 2011 the price of parity has exceeded their expectations and the market consensus, while good data on U.S. economic activity and high oil prices have not been able to compensate for the weight pressures resulting the issue of Europe and the weak euro.

For its part, the financial group Invex analysts are of the opinion that the exchange rate has maintained high levels due to slower growth and especially the strong nerves recorded in the financial markets.

However, consider that the fundamentals of weight are favorable; the country has no debt and pays worrying attractive interest rates, and however the exchange rate has been volatile due to the high level of uncertainty.

We expect greater stability on high levels (about $ 13.0 pesos) in 2012 due to the expectation of lower rates and lower growth dynamic.

During 2011 the exchange rate in wholesale transactions closed at 13.77 pesos per dollar. Invex analysts predict in 2012 and closure of 13.0 units.

The average for the entire 2012 (between 13.3 and 13.5 pesos per dollar) will be higher than 2011 (12.4 units), because a lot of stability is predicted around 13 units.