By Eliane Portillo

The vulnerable recovery, for Sergio Martin, specialist, the current crisis is a sequel to previous crises. Global growth has been under (1.9%), and in general, retail sales and the manufacturing sector are recovered, the latter is in moderate expansion.

In the case of Europe, the specialist says that the crisis situation will prevail because of the deterioration of the welfare state, especially in countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal which, of course, will have impact on Mexico. However, Mexico has a scheme of free exchange that allows responding to these contingencies. It also has services and infrastructure necessary to continue to export, in addition to the possibility of diversification and access to the Latin American and European market.

The United States will keep low but constant growth and therefore, will remain as the minimum basis for growth in Mexico. Exports will recover at a slow pace, mainly through the automotive industry.

The US economy recovers more quickly due to its political unity, said Sergio Martin, although any recovery at this time is vulnerable.

Optimistic Perspective, Andrew Vernon, provided figures on the prospect of the Bank of Mexico in the country. According to the latest poll of Banxico, the grow perspective is greater than 3%, a more optimistic overview than the consensus which places it between 2.5% and 2.9%.

Among the most notable data stood out the fact that private consumption and investments are slow due to the volatility of the environment, while public consumption will not be relevant in 2012. In addition, he said that employment in private sector improved notoriously, and wages recovered profits.

Necessary reforms. As for the impact that may have the electoral process and structural reforms, Roberto Salinas of Mexico Business Forum, stressed that volatility is now an external factor, given the current situation. Next year must seek fiscal consolidation from structural reforms to ensure streamlining of investment because they are a confidence indicator, and bet on the value added through energy, labor and fiscal reforms.