By Eliane Portillo

Consumer confidence was affected by the international environment. The Mexican consumer confidence improved 6% in 2011 compared to 2010 average. However, in particular during the last quarter it experienced a weakening due   to exacerbation of the financial crisis in Europe, an increased risk that the United States may fell into a recession and the peso weakened.

According to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), in December 2011 finished 90.84 points, which meant that it ended the year at -0.4% compared to the end of 2010. Analysts believe that this result was lower than expected. This is due mainly to the decline in the perception of the situation of the country, mainly influenced by the deterioration of the global environment and high insecurity that prevails to date. These factors have contributed to perception of consumers about their situation becomes less optimistic, and that the perception of the current and future situation of the country will continue downward.

They added that if stability in financial markets recovers and the peso start a return to levels close to the $13 pesos, the component could be also recover.

Regarding the prospect for 2012, analysts considered that the labor market will recover only marginally, and observe moderate growth rates, with high downside risks to the global economic situation.

In addition, it is highly probable that insecurity is maintained and that the electoral environment adversely affects the perception of consumers. Therefore, the confidence indicator probably won't grow significantly during 2012. It will be noted significant growth only if domestic demand remains strong, the economy grows more than expected in United States and if it is a convergence to stability during the year, they said.